Market pricing resilience of Brazilian retail and lower space for interest cuts in the USA
The rates of Interfinancial Deposits (DIs) closed on Thursday light high, reflecting a set of signs that reinforce the narrative of high interest for longer, both in Brazil and abroad.
Second Fabricio de Castro, by Reuters, the movement was supported mainly by brazilian retail data above expectations and by stronger numbers of the US labor market, which boosted the incomes of Treasures and pushed the local curve.
🔎 What happened in the Brazilian market
According to IBGE, retail sales grew 1.0% in November before October and 1.3% in the annual comparison, overcoming market projections with ease. These numbers reinforced the reading of an economy still heated, reducing bets on aggressive Selic cuts in the short term.
In this context:
- THE DI Jan/2028 closed 13,075%, high 3 basis points
- THE DI Jan/2035 has ended the 13,58%, with advance of 2 basis points
During the pitch, the fees were even renewed, reflecting fine adjustment of positions and search for protection.
🏛️ Central bank on radar, but no direct impact
Before the opening of the market, the Central Bank announced the extrajudicial liquidation of Reag Trust DTVM, manager linked to the fraud of the Master Bank. As highlighted by professionals heard by Reuters, despite remaining on the radar, the episode had no relevant impact on asset pricing.
Outside, the applications for unemployment aid in the United States Surprised down, falling to 198 thousand., well below expectations. According to data from the US Department of Labor, this reduced the chances of interest cuts by the Federal Reserve in the short term.
As a reflection:
- THE 2-year Treasure went up to 3,562%
- THE 10-year-old Treasure advanced to 4,156%
💼 Treasury and hedge auction on the interest curve
Another factor cited by operators, according to Reuters, was: Prefixed securities auction of the National Treasury, which increased demand for hedge in the DIs market — typical movement on days of higher offer of public roles.
🌍 Geopolitics adds noise to the scenario
In the background, investors also monitored global geopolitical tensions. In an exclusive interview with Reuters, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, claimed to have no plans to remove the Chair from the Fed, Jerome Powell, despite ongoing investigations, while raising the tone towards Ukraine and Iran.
🧠 SOP Reading
The sign is clear: the market is sensitive to any data indicating economic resilience. While inflation and activity do not yield consistently, the interest curve continues to adjust premiums — not by panic, but by macroeconomic realism.
📌 In 2026, it is not political noise that moves the market, but data, flow and monetary discipline.
